Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer has predicted that Bitcoin could reach its bear-market bottom between October and December 2026, with a target range of $42,000 to $44,000, adding to a growing debate over whether the current downturn has further to run.
Jiang, founder of BTC.TOP and one of China’s best-known early Bitcoin mining figures, based the forecast on a combination of Strategy’s market valuation, historical Bitcoin cycle behavior and what he described as a diminishing-volatility model. His call comes as Bitcoin trades near $61,577, leaving the asset roughly 30% to 32% above the bottom range he expects later this year.
The key metric in Jiang’s analysis is Strategy’s modified net asset value, or mNAV, which compares the company’s market value with the value of its Bitcoin holdings and broader capital structure. Jiang said Strategy’s mNAV has fallen to about 0.72, close to the 0.7 level reached in May 2022 during the previous cycle’s transition into a deeper bear market.
In his view, the mNAV decline may indicate that Strategy-related sentiment is already near a cycle low, but not necessarily that Bitcoin itself has bottomed. Jiang argued that in the previous cycle, Strategy’s mNAV reached its low roughly six months before Bitcoin’s final bottom, with BTC later falling to about $15,476 in November 2022.
Strategy Valuation Becomes a Cycle Signal
Jiang’s forecast highlights how Strategy has become a proxy for institutional Bitcoin sentiment. The company, formerly MicroStrategy, remains the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder and is closely watched by traders because its equity, preferred securities and net asset value premium often reflect leveraged market confidence in Bitcoin.
Recent pressure on Strategy-linked securities has reinforced that view. Concerns around preferred-stock instruments, dividend obligations and compressed valuation premiums have made Strategy’s capital structure a broader signal for risk appetite in Bitcoin markets. Jiang’s argument is that Strategy’s mNAV may bottom before spot Bitcoin because equity investors often reprice future stress earlier than crypto spot markets.
The prediction is also consistent with a four-year-cycle framework, which remains popular among Bitcoin market participants despite increasing debate over whether ETFs, institutional adoption and macro conditions have weakened the old halving-cycle pattern. Under Jiang’s model, each cycle continues to produce large drawdowns, but the amplitude of both rallies and declines gradually diminishes.
Late-2026 Bottom Call Faces Market Pushback
A fall to $42,000 to $44,000 would represent a significant additional decline from current levels and would likely pressure miners, leveraged traders, Bitcoin treasury companies and ETF sentiment. It would also test whether institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs can provide stronger downside support than in previous cycles.
Jiang has said his near- to medium-term strategy remains focused on selling spot Bitcoin and shorting, with plans to shift toward buying spot and going long once the projected bottom is reached. He has also suggested that a long-Strategy, short-Bitcoin arbitrage trade could become attractive if the valuation gap widens further.
The forecast remains a model-driven view rather than a market consensus. Bitcoin’s price path will still depend on ETF flows, liquidity conditions, Federal Reserve policy, corporate treasury demand and broader risk appetite. A renewed acceleration in institutional inflows or easing macro conditions could challenge the late-2026 bear-market scenario.
Still, Jiang’s call is notable because it links Bitcoin’s downside risk to public-market signals from Strategy rather than only on-chain metrics or miner economics. For investors, the $42,000 to $44,000 target frames the key question for the rest of 2026: whether Bitcoin is already near exhaustion, or whether the final capitulation phase remains several months away.
