This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: RBA and FOMC minutes, British unemployment & inflation,
Tuesday
RBA meeting minutes at 01:30 AM GMT. These are published 2 weeks after the interest rate decision. They give full details of the discussions and the different views, and record the votes of the members of the committee. This could spark some volatility on the Australian dollar and the instruments traded against it.
British unemployment at 06:00 AM GMT for March is expected to hold steady at 4.9%, while the claimants are expected to increase to 27,300 for April, compared to the previous recording of 26,800.
Wednesday
British Inflation rate at 06:00 AM GMT, where the figure for April is expected to drop from 3.3% to 3%. If it’s confirmed, then the pound might witness some short-term gains against other currencies.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, where investors and traders will be paying close attention to any hints from the Federal Reserve in terms of future developments on the monetary policy. Currently, the possibilities of a rate cut are muted according to the Fedwatch tool, whereas hawkish scenarios have started rising.
Thursday
Flash British manufacturing PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. The expectations for the figure are at 53.5 compared to the previous 53.7. UK manufacturing has managed to remain above the 50-point mark since November, but if the expectations are confirmed, then it might create some short-term gains for the pound.
Flash British services PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. Market participants are expecting the publication to be at 51.7 points compared to the 52.7 points of April. The services sector in the UK has managed to remain above the 50-point mark for the last 30 months (excluding April 2025, when it was at around 49). This shows the health and strength of the service sector in the UK and could potentially create some support for the quid in the immediate aftermath of the release.
USOIL, daily
Oil prices moved higher after Donald Trump warned Iran that negotiations to end the war were running out of time, signaling growing frustration as talks remain deadlocked. Trump said Tehran needed to act quickly or face severe consequences, while Iranian media claimed Washington had failed to offer meaningful concessions in response to Tehran’s latest proposals. Markets remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively closed following US and Israeli strikes earlier this year. The disruption to one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes continues to support oil prices and fuel supply concerns. The latest escalation comes as the fragile ceasefire announced in April faces increasing pressure. Trump is also expected to meet with senior national security advisers this week to discuss potential military options regarding Iran, adding to fears that tensions could intensify further.
On the technical side, the price held above the support of the 50-day simple moving average in the opening of last week and has since continued trading upwards. The result of this bullish correction was the Stochastic oscillator being pushed to the extreme overbought conditions, hinting at a potential bearish correction in the upcoming sessions. The overall picture, however, is bullish as it’s also confirmed by the moving averages. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which could prove to be a major area on the chart since it is also an area of price reaction in late April, which is the latest swing high.
Gold-dollar, daily
Gold held near recent lows as the ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continued to fuel inflation fears and pressure bond markets. With the US and Iran still far apart on a deal to reopen the key energy route, investors remain concerned that prolonged disruptions could keep oil prices elevated and force central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy. The metal has struggled to regain momentum after a sharp selloff earlier in the conflict, as rising bond yields and expectations of higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Fresh threats from Donald Trump toward Iran have further increased concerns that tensions could escalate rather than ease. Despite the recent weakness, some analysts still expect gold to find support in the longer term if slowing economic growth eventually pushes central banks back toward monetary easing.
From a technical point of view, the gold price has reacted aggressively at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and has since entered a bearish correction, which is still ongoing. The Bollinger Bands have contracted, indicating decreased volatility, while the Stochastic oscillator is in extreme oversold territory, suggesting a short-term bullish correction. This scenario is also reinforced by the lower band of the Bollinger Bands acting as a support. On the other hand, the moving averages are still validating the overall bearish trend in the market, so contradicting indications often lead to a range-bound movement for an instrument.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
