The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures trades placed shortly before key announcements related to the Iran conflict, according to reports citing sources familiar with the matter. The trades involved large bearish positions that anticipated declines in oil prices minutes or hours before public policy announcements triggered major market moves.
The investigation centers on at least four major trades executed between March 23 and April 21 across oil futures and related derivatives markets. Regulators are examining whether any traders improperly obtained access to nonpublic information connected to U.S. foreign policy decisions or diplomatic developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
According to trading data obtained from the London Stock Exchange Group and reviewed by ABC News, traders placed more than $500 million in bets that oil prices would fall roughly 15 minutes before Trump announced on March 23 that the United States would delay threatened attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure. Oil prices declined shortly afterward.
A second major trade occurred on April 7, when traders reportedly wagered approximately $960 million on falling oil prices hours before Trump announced a temporary ceasefire involving Iran. Crude benchmarks subsequently dropped as much as 15% following the announcement.
Investigators are also reviewing a $760 million bearish oil trade executed about 20 minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly stated on April 17 that the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Oil prices fell sharply after the announcement eased fears of supply disruptions through one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.
The fourth trade under review involved approximately $430 million in oil bets placed shortly before Trump announced an extension of the temporary ceasefire on April 21.
Reuters separately reported that the broader pattern of suspiciously timed oil trades tied to Iran-related developments may total as much as $7 billion across crude, diesel and gasoline derivatives traded on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Regulators Scrutinize Potential Insider Trading Risks
Neither the DOJ nor the CFTC has publicly confirmed the investigation, and no criminal or civil charges have been filed. Reports emphasized that the trading data does not identify the parties behind the positions and does not by itself prove insider trading or illegal conduct occurred.
Still, the timing and scale of the trades have intensified scrutiny across Washington and commodity markets. Legal experts and market analysts said the transactions represent some of the largest potentially suspicious geopolitical trades examined by regulators in recent years.
Representative Ritchie Torres previously urged federal regulators to investigate several of the trades, describing one transaction as potentially “the largest instance of insider trading in history” in correspondence sent to the SEC and CFTC earlier this year.
The investigation arrives during a period of heightened volatility in global oil markets tied to the Iran conflict and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil shipments. Brent crude recently traded above $100 per barrel during periods of escalating tensions before retreating following ceasefire announcements and diplomatic developments.
Market participants noted that geopolitical commodity trading often involves speculation around government actions and military developments. However, analysts said the precision and timing of the trades under review have raised questions about whether certain market participants may have had advance knowledge of sensitive policy announcements.
The investigation also highlights growing regulatory concern over market integrity during periods of geopolitical instability, particularly as commodity futures markets increasingly react in real time to social media posts, diplomatic signals and policy announcements from political leaders.
