BTC Recession – How Low Can It Go?
Daily Crypto Forecast
Judging from how BTC is keeping its head down, today’s crypto forecast 2024 shows that the price will soon match February’s levels. At the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin price ranged around $43K, with the lowest price seeing a volume of $31.9B. In daily charts, it’s becoming obvious that the leading crypto is dropping, but an untrained eye might miss these crucial details: volume, liquidity, and trading patterns. The main giveaway for the forecast lies in the details.
Why Does 24H Volume in Crypto Trading Matter?
Does volume foreshadow a drop?
It’s simple. If you look at the history of BTC, you will notice that in the last 5 years, the average volume was over $250B. The all-time high peaked during COVID-19, almost matching the current price of BTC.
If you analyze and compare, the first tower in 2021 looks quite familiar on the chart – especially since there is a head and shoulders peak right next to it. Are traders realizing that the prices are about to drop, thus turning a profit? Or are the current red charts signaling to rookie traders to sell at a lower price? Is fear creeping into the charts?
The recent Crypto Fear & Greed Index is yet another metric not to be missed. It currently stands at 64, indicating a state of greed, which is lower than yesterday’s 74 and last week’s 72, both of which also reflected greed. It seems fear has a new partner – greed – and together, they’re dancing their way through the charts.
Historical Context
However, this is nothing new. Cryptocurrency market cycles are periodic phases of accumulation, rapid price increases, peak distribution, and subsequent declines driven by investor sentiment, trading volumes, and external influences. Since the disappearance of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin has been the leader, and the crypto space follows it.
A not-to-be-missed event, Bitcoin halving quietly marked a historic moment in the world of digital assets on April 19, 2024. Although it passed without much fanfare, this event, which occurs approximately every four years, significantly impacts prices by reducing the rate of new Bitcoin supply. This scarcity often drives prices higher, reflecting the increased demand for the limited supply.
In 2022, after the end of the COVID lockdown, BTC dropped drastically. It went from an all-time high of $68K to $31K within 6 months, after which it stayed quite stable for several months, up to a year even, only to start the rise in 2024.
This can also be due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. The world went into panic mode, saving their assets and money in the most trustworthy asset currently available. Additionally, a lot of money got moved around for financing the war. The dark horse of a safe haven has it’s ups and downs when it comes to the use, but in reality the safety it brings to individuals outweighs the rest. Hopefully, one day, there will be proper and fair crypto regulations which will stabilize the prices as well.
Regardless of what is going on in the world, BTC has been the key to becoming rich. So? Should we expect the same crypto price forecast?
BTC Liquidity: The Wave of the Crypto Markets
Recent Bitcoin price changes reveal its high liquidity, as evidenced by significant daily trading volumes and continuous price adjustments. For example, on June 4, 2024, Bitcoin’s price rose to $70,563 with a trading volume of $3.87 billion. The fluctuations in both price and volume over these days highlight Bitcoin’s active market participation and ease of trading, making it a highly liquid asset.
2024 Crypto Price Forecast
The first tower of 2024 should rise again, just like in 2021, likely reaching $63K at most, after which it will drastically drop to $53K. At this point, many new buyers will appear, slowly raising the value of Bitcoin over the course of 6 weeks. We will see another head and shoulders this summer, likely peaking at $65K. As our fellow traders know, head and shoulders indicated a bearish trend. The peak this summer will be the highest priced, and according to our crypto forecast we expect it to be the best time to sell to make profit, especially that once it begins to drop buying it for much cheaper will bring traders the profit they have been waiting for since 2021.
Post-Summer and the Halloween Curse
But what will happen after the summer? The Halloween curse never ceases to catch up to BTC, likely resulting in a drastic drop through the holiday season. However, historical data shows resilience; in October 2023, Bitcoin closed at $34,667.78, up 28.6% for the month, and continued to rise in November 2023, closing at $37,712.75, up 8.8% for the month, reflecting a positive trend compared to the previous year’s performance. Yet, as resilient as Bitcoin can be, other markets are often more vulnerable to post-summer drops, reminding us that Bitcoin exists within a broader financial context.
Making Money with Crypto
If you have BTC sitting idly, let it rest for a while. However, if you’re looking to make money, now is a good time to sell Bitcoin and secure a profit before prices drop too much. You likely bought it at a lower price, allowing you to easily make a $20K profit, depending on the volume.
When to Buy BTC in 2024?
The best time to buy BTC in 2024 is most likely around Halloween. The curse of the holidays never disappoints, often bringing the price down by almost $10K. If you can wait, buying in October is ideal. This period typically sees a significant dip in prices, presenting a prime opportunity for investment. For maximum benefit, consider buying in bulk over several weeks to spread your purchases and optimize your investment. This strategy could position you well for future gains as the market recovers and prices rise again.
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